Leading when you don’t yet know: The discipline behind good judgement
After last week’s article, some of you shared how strongly the idea of sensemaking in the dark resonated, especially the part about negative capability. Several people said it helped them name something they’d been doing instinctively: pausing, holding steady and allowing thinking to unfold before action. Others admitted to how hard it is to resist the pull toward premature certainty when the system is anxious and everyone wants answers.
Those reflections pointed to the fact that sensemaking is only possible when leaders can tolerate not‑knowing long enough to see what is actually happening. That inner stance – the ability to stay present in uncertainty without rushing to premature interpretation – is what this article explores.
Uncertainty is rarely comfortable.
It’s less about comfort and more about manageability; developing the capacity to hold ambiguity without being overwhelmed by it, and without collapsing into habitual patterns that obscure what the system is trying to tell you.
Where the idea of negative capability comes from
The term comes from the poet John Keats, who described negative capability as the ability to remain “in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact and reason.” He meant it as a creative stance; a way of staying open to what might emerge rather than forcing coherence too soon.
Psychoanalytic thinkers later recognised how essential this stance is when working with complex emotional material. It requires the ability to tolerate confusion, contradiction and partial information without rushing to premature interpretation.
Systems‑psychodynamic practitioners then extended the idea into organisational life. In complex systems, clarity rarely arrives fully formed. Leaders must often act before they fully understand and think while the situation is still unfolding. Negative capability became a way of naming the discipline required to stay present in those moments rather than withdrawing, and not rushing or defending, but thinking.
How systems psychodynamics uses negative capability
In Tavistock-informed practice, negative capability is central because it allows leaders to see the system more clearly. When we rush to certainty, we often end up responding to:
the organisation’s anxiety
other people’s projections
our own internal narratives
familiar defensive patterns
Rather than the reality of the situation.
Negative capability creates a small but vital gap between stimulus and response. It is a space where leaders can observe what is happening in themselves, in others, and in the wider system before acting.
This is where Susan Long’s Transforming Experience Framework becomes invaluable. It helps leaders distinguish between:
ambiguity inherent in the role
ambiguity projected onto them by the system
ambiguity arising from their own personal history, assumptions and expectations.
When leaders can separate these strands, they stop treating all uncertainty as the same. They begin to see which part belongs to the task, which part belongs to the organisation, and which part belongs to them. That clarity helps make ambiguity manageable.
Other ideas that deepen this work
Negative capability sits alongside several other systems‑psychodynamic ideas that help leaders work thoughtfully with uncertainty including:
Bion’s “thinking under fire”; metabolising emotional experience rather than pushing it away.
Obholzer & Roberts on organisational anxiety: showing how systems push leaders toward premature action when they themselves can’t tolerate not‑knowing.
Weick’s sensemaking: leadership as ongoing interpretation and meaning‑making.
Menzies Lyth’s social defences: how organisations create structures that protect against anxiety but obscure reality.
French & Simpson’s work on present‑moment thinking: the discipline of staying with experience long enough for insight to emerge.
Svalgaard’s exploration of mindfulness and negative capability: highlighting the role of awareness, compassion and “embracing” difficult emotions as part of the work.
Together, these ideas help leaders understand that uncertainty is not a personal failing but a structural feature of complex systems. The work is not to eliminate it, but to learn how to stand within it.
How leaders can develop the ability to tolerate not‑knowing
These are not sensemaking behaviours but are capability‑building practices that strengthen the inner stance required, before sensemaking is possible.
Slow the pace so thinking can catch up with emotion Urgency is contagious. Slowing down, even briefly, allows leaders to notice what is driving their reactions.
Name the ambiguity rather than performing certainty Saying “We don’t yet have a clear answer” reduces pressure more than pretending clarity exists.
Leaders can ask:
What ambiguity belongs to the role?
What ambiguity is being projected onto me by the system?
What ambiguity comes from my own history or assumptions?
Notice your habitual responses to uncertainty
Do you rush? Withdraw? Over‑analyse? Rescue? These patterns are understandable but they can distort judgement.
Stay connected rather than isolating
Sensemaking is relational. Talking things through with trusted colleagues helps distribute anxiety and widen perspective.
Hold multiple interpretations lightly
Avoid smoothing out complexity too soon. Keep two or three possible explanations in play until the picture sharpens.
Pay attention to emotional currents and patterns
Systems often reveal themselves through repeated behaviours, emotional climates, and subtle shifts, not just formal data.
Practise “thinking in the presence of uncertainty”
This is Bion’s idea: staying with the experience long enough for insight to emerge, rather than pushing away discomfort through premature action.
These practices don’t make uncertainty comfortable. They create space for thinking. Dr David Naylor put it well - “Waiting is hard and we can equate it with doing nothing. Waiting is thinking.”
Negative capability is the discipline of staying with uncertainty long enough to make a judgement on what is happening
Negative capability is not about waiting passively or tolerating confusion for its own sake. It is the disciplined act of staying with uncertainty long enough to see what is really going on, in yourself, in others and in the system. Leaders who cultivate this capacity don’t eliminate ambiguity; they learn to work with it in a way that reveals insight, reduces distortion and supports wiser action.
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