Sensemaking in the dark: Leading when there is no clear answer

Leading would be infinitely easier if life arrived with subtitles. Instead, those in leadership roles are routinely asked to make sense of situations that feel indistinct, emotionally charged, politically tangled, where the data is lacking, or perhaps where everyone is certain there is a clear answer, but no one can actually agree on which one.

This is where the role gets real: leading when there is no clear answer and sensemaking without knowing for sure which is the right direction to take. Where ambiguity reigns and we each react in our very personal ways whether that’s to feel angry, to leap to a false sense of surety or quietly hope someone else will go first.

Why leaders get stuck when the answer won’t reveal itself

When you hit these foggy patches, it’s rarely because you lack competence. More often, it’s because the situation itself is inherently vague. The system is pulling in different directions, making people anxious, and the stakes can be high. The person with the most official authority is expected to produce clarity from conditions that are, frankly, unclear.

Psychodynamic theory helps here. When anxiety rises, organisations tend to regress. People cling to certainty, defend their corner or retreat into magical thinking (“maybe if we wait long enough, the problem will solve itself”). Leaders feel this pressure and often respond by narrowing their thinking, speeding up or trying to “fix” things prematurely.

Sensemaking isn’t about fixing though. It’s about holding, thinking, and interpreting, even when the data is contradictory, the politics are messy and the stress levels are rising.

Sensemaking is a contact sport

Karl Weick described sensemaking as something we do in interaction with others, with the system, with the story we’re telling ourselves. In practice, this means:

• Noticing what’s actually happening, not just what people say is happening.

• Listening for the emotional undercurrent, because anxiety is often the real driver.

• Testing interpretations, rather than clinging to the first one that feels comfortable.

• Staying curious, especially when you’d rather retreat into certainty.

This is where people often underestimate themselves. Sensemaking isn’t about being right. It’s about being useful by creating a version of events that helps people move, act, and coordinate.

In coaching, I see leaders wrestling with three predictable patterns when the answer is unclear:

1. The Lone Hero: “I’ll work it out myself”. This is noble, but usually disastrous. Sensemaking is relational. Lone heroes tend to miss the wider system dynamics and accidentally create more confusion.

   
   

2. The Over-Thinker Spiral: “If I analyse this from 17 angles, the answer will appear”. This is me and I can attest, it won’t. We are always planning in the face of uncertainty, so ambiguity isn’t resolved by more thinking but by better framing.

   
   

3. The Emotional Shortcut: “I’ll go with what feels right”. Sometimes helpful and a use of judgement, but sometimes just a well-disguised defence against discomfort.

   
   

The real skill is negative capability. This is the ability to tolerate not knowing long enough for something more thoughtful to emerge. It’s uncomfortable, but it’s also where the best work can happen.

What does good sensemaking look like?

From years of coaching leaders in messy, high‑pressure systems, here’s what I see working:

• Slow the pace when everyone else is speeding up.

• Name the ambiguity rather than pretending it isn’t there.

• Hold multiple interpretations lightly, without prematurely collapsing them into one.

• Stay connected to others, especially when your instinct is to withdraw.

• Use your role, not your personality, as the anchor for decision-making.

• Ask the system what it’s trying to tell you, through the patterns you notice, not just the individuals in it.

• And, crucially, don’t confuse noise with insight. The loudest voice in the room is rarely the most accurate one.

  
  

Those in leadership positions can assume they’re failing when they can’t produce clarity instantly. In reality, they’re doing the hard, invisible work of leadership: thinking in the dark, with others, under pressure.

Sensemaking doesn’t produce neat answers, but it does produce something far more valuable: a shared understanding that allows people to act with confidence, and learn together, even when the path ahead is foggy.

If you can do that, calmly, thoughtfully, and without pretending you have all the answers, you’re already leading well.